How big is the investment in AI?

1. Estimated Investment from the Long Tail of Tech Companies:

The "long tail" of tech companies, including smaller tech firms, startups, and medium-sized businesses, will likely make significant investments in AI. This includes companies that don’t have the scale of the "Magnificent Seven" but still contribute significantly. There are various ways to estimate this, but considering the breadth of the tech industry, the immense growth in AI investments (even from smaller companies), and the increasing number of AI-first startups, we can assume that the long tail’s investment will be between $200 billion and $300 billion in 2025. This amount may vary depending on the number of investments, private companies, and the growth of venture capital in the AI sector.

2. Total Overview of AI Investments in 2025:

3. Comparison with Other Major Historical Projects:

When we compare the scale of AI investments in 2025 with historical, large-scale projects like the Apollo Program, the Manhattan Project, and expenditures during World War II, we see that AI investments in 2025 could be as significant in both absolute figures and long-term impact.

Apollo Program:

• Costs: The Apollo program, which led to the first moon landing in 1969, had an estimated cost of $25 billion in the 1960s (about $150 billion in today’s money).
• Impact: It was a global project that revolutionized space exploration and laid the foundation for the future of space research. It had massive strategic importance for the US during the Cold War.

Manhattan Project:

• Costs: The Manhattan Project, which developed the atomic bomb during World War II, cost about $2 billion in the 1940s, which equals roughly $30 billion today.
• Impact: This was a crucial project in WWII that led to the development of nuclear weapons and significant geopolitical changes. It had long-term effects on global security and geopolitics.

World War II:

• Costs: Worldwide expenditures during WWII for both the US and the Allies amounted to hundreds of billions of dollars (estimated at $4-5 trillion in current value).
• Impact: WWII led to the technological acceleration of the world (radar, communication, aircraft and weapon development). The economic and industrial mobilization was unprecedented.

4. Comparison with AI Investments in 2025:

The total AI investments of $708-808 billion in 2025 are comparable to the combined costs of a global conflict like World War II, but focused on technological dominance and innovation. This is a continuous investment that will grow over the coming decades, much like the impact of AI on daily life.

• AI in 2025: This technology can fundamentally shift how we work, learn, communicate, and produce. The economic and social impact of AI will likely surpass the Apollo and Manhattan programs because it will influence virtually every aspect of modern society.
• Long-term Impact: Compared to the Apollo and Manhattan projects, which focused on specific goals (space exploration and nuclear technology), AI is much broader. It will not only lead to technological progress but also lay the foundation for new industries, markets, and ways of working. It could also cause a redistribution of power and influence (consider the geopolitical power of countries managing AI technology).

Conclusion:

The AI investments in 2025 are comparable to other historic, large-scale projects, but they go further in their goal and impact on all aspects of society. This makes AI, in terms of economic value and potential, one of the largest "

(This post was written with Chapgpt pro with vision and orignial idea's from Dominique De Cooman)